Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Cyprus
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Japan
  • Georgia
  • Singapore

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,270$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,910.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 56.9)}}\) (asimptote \(159,910.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,071$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,544.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,544.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,714$ on 2020-06-04

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,921$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,086.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,086.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{310.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(310.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,462$ on 2020-06-04

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $167,410$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,916.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(158,916.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,630$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(888 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,470.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,470.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,002$ on 2020-06-04

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,495$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,695.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,695.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(71.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(279.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,191$ on 2020-06-04

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,018$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(795 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,015.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,015.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(22.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(273.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,173$ on 2020-06-04

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,157$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,071.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(114,071.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $611$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(40.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,279.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 73.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,279.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,581$ on 2020-06-04

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,741$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(711 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,938.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(95,938.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.04 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,228$ on 2020-06-04

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $958$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(268 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{916.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(916.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-06-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Japan recovered 90%
Turkey recovered 62%
Georgia recovered 61%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 32%
Kuwait recovered 21%
Saudi Arabia recovered 18%

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,911$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,661.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,661.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $911$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(75.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(960.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,215$ on 2020-06-04

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $801$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{781.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(781.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144$ on 2020-06-04

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,922$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(480 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,584.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,584.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.37 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,994$ on 2020-06-04