Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $164,270$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,910.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 56.9)}}\) (asimptote \(159,910.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,071$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,544.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,544.2\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,714$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,921$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,086.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,086.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $236$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{310.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(310.3\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,462$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $167,410$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,916.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(158,916.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,630$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(888 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,470.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,470.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,002$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,495$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,695.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,695.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(71.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(279.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,191$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,018$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(795 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,015.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,015.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(22.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(273.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,173$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,157$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,071.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(114,071.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $611$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(40.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,279.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 73.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,279.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,581$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,741$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(711 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,938.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(95,938.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.04 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,228$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $958$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(268 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{916.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(916.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $151$ on 2020-06-04